US Markets - Five Points

1. US markets are flat ahead of the Employment Report, followed by a long weekend.

2. Everyone's an expert when it's not their problem.

3. Here’s something I have high confidence in, but may not be true: All the news headlines about the US and Israel not getting along have been misdirection; the US and Israel coordinate everything closely, and every White House lets them do whatever they want as long as they do it effectively. Here’s something I have low confidence in, yet may be true: The whole Musk-Trump blowup is make-believe and misdirection; Musk left the White House with an agreement they’d troll each other a bit, but there’s a bigger picture and a rationale behind it.

4. Last night, I had dinner with a New York couple (not on this list) who were quite worried about the mayoral primary. They didn’t seem to grasp that the election has little real-world impact. Amused by how unfazed I was, they asked what I’d do when Mamdani becomes mayor. I said I’d simply ignore him, the same way I ignored De Blasio. Pockets of the US are going to have a multi-year flirtation with socialism, a legacy of radical college indoctrination that is coming to an end. It’ll fail, as socialism fails without exception, and there’s no reason to shake your fist at the clouds while this plays out.

5. I talk a lot of shit about jujitsu, so why don’t I enter a competition? Jujitsu means different things to different people, but I think you should compete before you become a purple belt. This is because you are awarded a blue belt for attendance (Any gym will give you a blue belt after two years). On the other hand, most purple belts are savages. Anyway, I’m taking the plunge and competing in NY on the weekend of August 2nd, if any practitioners want to join me. Regardless, Happy 4th!